Archives For March 2011

I have a friend who lives high up in a building, and has a terrace, and likes to set off Chinese paper lanterns late at night. The aerodynamics are such that the wind flows up the side of the building and carries these lanterns directly upward. Watching a fleet of these soar is inspiring … it’s amazing to believe that such a fragile construction of paper and plywood, filled with flame, can actually fly.

I was with him once at a beach house owned by a friend of his, in the Dominican Republic. He thought that seeing these lanterns fly out above the ocean would be magnificent. The first one he lit flew directly sideways, actually hit a woman’s head 40 feet away, and then careened into the building. Thankfully no one caught on fire, but everyone was pissed. Turns out that when you are launching fragile and combustible objects, it really, really matters which way the wind is blowing.

That experience (seeing a woman nearly burn to death and multi-million dollar beach house nearly go up in flames) reminded me of our first fund. We raised a $43MM seed stage fund in 2000, and proceeded to invest relatively quickly in over 70 companies. Shockingly, that fund looks like it will actually make money, based on some outsized exits (Optasite, @Last, Glycofi, Pump Audio) and some unrealized winners (Everyday Health, Newforma, GetWell Networks). This compares to the median fund from the vintage, which is worth $0.83 on the dollar. That notwithstanding, like most seed stage investors, we were doing the equivalent of launching a fleet of Chinese lanterns. From 2000 through 2005, the wind was against us, and a lot of those lanterns were extinguished or went in bad directions.

If you are a seed stage investor, there are three categories of good outcomes. The first is that the company gets purchased without needing new capital, and you make a quick return. The second is that you raise a next round at an uptick, and then sell, and you make a quick return. The third is that you raise a series of follow on rounds, at accelerating upticks, and you sell the company (or go public) for a very meaningful return. All of these things depend on picking great companies who make real progress, but I would submit they depend more on the environment, ie, which way the wind is blowing.

Right now, and for the last few years, we have had ideal conditions in the consumer web sector for this kind of investing. A group of eager acquirers focused on talent and willing to pay up? Check. Tons of investor interest in the sector, willing to pay up for companies with traction? Check. A Cambrian period of innovation coupled with low cost company building and marketing tools so that early demonstrable momentum can be achieved on short dollars? Check.

How long will this go on? My friend and very talented investor Shana Fisher has a framework where she points out that from 1995-2000, anyone randomly investing in early stage made money, from 2000-2005 anyone randomly investing lost money, and from 2005-2010, anyone randomly investing made money. I don’t love the next step in that sequence.

My personal view is that these conditions will continue for a while at least. Some of the dynamics involved are secular, rather than cyclical. Further, there are some folks who have leaned into the seed stage model and made an art of it, in a way we never did. First Round Capital comes to mind. Actually, come to think of it, they are the only ones who come to mind…

For our part, we moved onto more traditional early stage investing. Our latest fund is $135MM in size, we typically lead Series A rounds with $2-3MM, and we are focused on building a manageable number of high impact companies where we own an average of slightly over 20%. That requires us to get in early, which is why we have a tight sector focus on financial service and media, areas where we can get comfortable on little data and where we can sell our way into competitive deals based on our ability to help. The wind will always play a role, but hopefully we are launching rockets, not paper lanterns.

Orthogonal Feedback

March 7, 2011 — 3 Comments

source: http://rmstar.blogspot.com

I was meeting with some entrepreneurs last week, a terrific young team with an interesting company, and we were discussing their business. About halfway in, I said “Okay, let’s assume that most of this works, and you get some traction. What far fetched ideas do you have to truly create a massive company here?” The team slyly looked at each other and came out with some really interesting stuff. I joined in and had some extremely random ideas that, if they pursued them, would send them in very different directions. Some of it was pointless, and maybe all of it will get thrown out once the excitement of the meeting wears off, but I hope not.

I wish I did this kind of thing more, and I wish more investors did also. Obviously most entrepreneurs come to meet with VCs to get money, but most VC/entrepreneur meetings don’t end up with a check being written … as an example, we invest in far less than 1% of the companies we meet with (most of reasons have to do with our strategy, not the quality of the company). Given that, entrepreneurs should get something, at least. Most often what they get is a sense for what the market is looking for, eg, “mobile payments are really hot right now.” Hearing that once is modestly useful; hearing it a dozen times is distracting and annoying.

I think most VCs focus on sharing that kind of market feedback because they think that’s what’s expected. VCs are not necessarily supposed to have ideas, after all. In my experience, though, most VCs do have interesting ideas, if only as a function of sitting in meetings with smart, hyper-creative entrepreneurs all day long. If you live in a tinder box, you can’t help but have a few sparks once in a while.

[As an aside, if you're wondering why VCs don't typically start companies given my claim that they have good ideas, I think there are two reasons, if you'll allow me some vast generalizations. First, VC ideas are often riffs on an existing play, albeit hopefully novel and not incremental (in my lexicon, orthogonal in some way). Second, the real difference between VCs and entrepreneurs is that entrepreneurs are execution machines, and VCs ... not so much. And finally, there are some former VCs who've done well, most famously Mark Pincus, but I'm also bullish on Matt Warta, Dan Allen and others.]

So this is my new resolution: that each entrepreneur I meet with walks away with one or two new ideas that at least serve to stretch her thinking a bit. If they get that much from each of the investors they meet with, I’m certain the fundraising process will eventually lose its bad name.

The first task of a revolutionary is figuring out which buildings to burn down.

In that same sense, the first task of an entrepreneurial firm is to figure out what of the existing order to keep, and what to challenge. This is first in a long series of posts (possibly as many as two) riffing on the analogy of entrepreneur as insurgent and traditional big company as the corrupt regime in power. This will eventually be turned into a book, which you can pre-pre-order by sending me $100 right now. i take Paypal, Facebook credits, Zipmark, Dwolla, Venmo, Waspit, etc.

In the event that anyone is offended by the analogy or glib tone of this essay, and feels inclined to point out that it is an insult to liken an entrepreneur, who risks merely her time and treasure, to an Egyptian, Tunisian or Libyan revolutionary, who risks everything … mea culpa. As to tone, I am a dealer in snark, and when all you have is a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail. As to the analogy, I am gobsmacked by the courage of these young iconoclasts in the middle east, and thrilled by the way they take courage from each other; I can’t help but be reminded of the daring entrepreneurs I am lucky enough to work with.

The essential triumvirate in any insurgency includes the insurgent (entrepreneur), the regime (incumbent big company competitor) and the people (customers/users). The goal of the insurgent is build a movement that leverages his own strength against the regime’s weakness, all in the context of the hopes, dreams, wants and needs of the people. There are many stages to this thing, but the first stage involves getting into the fray and becoming relevant. that inevitably entails some mayhem, and hence this post: if you’re a revolutionary, out on the streets in the early days of an insurgency, which buildings do you burn down?

The initial temptation is to tear it all down, and build a utopia unconstrained by the baggage of the past. This is almost always a mistake. In particular, it’s a mistake not to at least dig deep into the current structure of how things are done, and then when rejecting elements of it, do so from an informed perspective. Even companies that represent radical new ideas leverage existing behaviors and habits. Think of twitter, a company i think we can all agree asked users to engage in a brand new human activity. What are the options you have when you “receive” a tweet? Basically, you can reply, reply all, forward, ignore or delete. Twitter uses its own vernacular, and certainly the fact that it is semi-public is a departure, but it fundamentally builds on heuristics that are deeply familiar from email (and, before that, corporate voicemail). Where possible, don’t destroy or take on those conventions and institutions that you can co-opt and leverage. You may damage the regime, but you’ll also damage yourself, in that you will certainly not delight the people. You don’t burn down the hospitals.

The second category of institution that you can choose to destroy are those that do represent a chance to win favor with the users, but will engender negative consequences from outside the immediate ecosystem. One of the portfolio companies we are very excited about is BankSimple. This is a company that operates in a heavily regulated industry, and is therefore properly cautious to remain within the bounds of what is considered kosher by the regulators. It would be enormously liberating to ignore these constraints, and in fact you could build a retail banking experience that would be absolutely kick-ass if you dispensed with things like Know Your Customer, fraud management and NACHA compliance (I won’t go into it but it’s not something you want at a Superbowl party). You can’t, and shouldn’t. You would hurt the incumbent competitors in the short term, and the customers would be wildly in favor, but forces larger than you would come down hard. You don’t burn down the US Embassy.

Next come the special interests, which exist any society … the privileged classes, the industrialists and landed families who own the factories and the real estate. These are people who have done well by the old regime, and will probably root against you, but who you need, as they control the means of production and have legitimacy (at least some) in the eyes of the people. The answer here depends how radical you want to be. One of our companies, Quirky.com, is clearly revolutionary. Quirky permits designers and investors to collaborate to create products, which Quirky then manufactures and sells. This type of crowdsourced innovation is new to the world and incredibly exciting, and is destined to disrupt the traditional relationships between consumer goods manufacturers and their distribution channels. Why, then, is Quirky also working with traditional retailers like Bed, Bath & Beyond? There is some good analysis here, but the basic answer is that it doesn’t usually make sense to try to innovate all the way up and down the chain when you can leverage some parts of the existing infrastructure. Quirky, at least, has decided not to burn down the office buildings.

Then you have the hard choice regarding the existing justice system. Do you set everybody free? “Free” is kind of a magic word these days, in entrepreneurial circles. The prevailing wisdom is to charge nothing, build a user base, and then “monetize” them. Similarly, when a society’s jails contain both real criminals and good people deemed enemies of the state, it is tempting to let them all free, and figure you can sort out the criminals later. But both of these things are very dangerous to the market dynamics. “Free” is a tough genie to put back in the bottle (also works if you substitute “hardened criminal” for “free” and “jail” for “bottle”.) One of our most exciting companies is called Extreme Reach, which is taking on a dominant incumbent in the video distribution business. It was tempting, at the outset, to compete on price. Instead, Extreme Reach built a technology that let them compete on quality, service and flexibility, maintaining the prevailing price structure. As they now rapidly take share, I can tell you that it’s awfully nice to be getting paid while doing so. There are many, many compelling counter-examples on the consumer side, all of which have built massive audiences by starting out, and largely staying, free. I would say, in general, that revolutionaries do burn down the prisons.

What do you do about the state controlled media? This, after all, is where the people have been getting their information for decades. Can you afford to destroy it, rather than co-opt it and use it for your own purposes? I think this one is increasingly clear. New movements demand new media, and can leverage the hell out of it. Examples here are too numerous to name, both in the insurgency world and the entrepreneurial world, but suffice it to say that getting a seat on Oprah’s couch is now less valuable, for most companies, than a retweet by Chris Sacca. Definitely burn down that state-run TV station.

Finally, there are those elements of the ideology that aren’t just wrong, they are representative of all that is wrong, the root of all evil. They may be lovely, or useful, or valuable, but they just must go, if the revolution is to have any legitimacy. One of our companies, On Deck Capital, has built a platform to enable lending to small businesses. In the last 3 years, they have lent over $100MM to Main St small businesses, with exceptional credit performance. The thing I love most about their model is that they basically ignore the FICO score, that antiquated and creaky credit scoring methodology that was one of the prime causes of the credit crisis. Both in reality, and in the realm of perception, you can’t build a “new” system that relies on emblematic elements of the old. Down with FICO; Up with On Deck! You burn down the secret police building, you burn down the torture chambers, and you burn down the presidential palaces!